STOCK UP: Don't say you weren't warned! (US)

[sorprenda]

True, no one cares about HGH, but Chinese GLPs are a problem too big to ignore. And it seems to me that China has every incentive to enable the gray market for GLP-1s for pennies on the dollar, undermine western Pharma, and make money while mocking IP.

I am not an expert, but to my eyes, for the time being, it seems Eli Lilly has lost the production war. After spending untold amounts on R&D, China turns around and sells their same molecule worldwide for $50, and there's nothing anyone can do about it. It's not just lost sales. They are being exposed as emperor has no clothes. Every kit of Reta that makes its way to a suburb is proof that the system doesn't work the way we're told.

Pure speculation, but here's how I think it will play out.

First, we are going to start seeing a lot of stories in the media about quality control, because they need to change the narrative from "miracle weight loss drug" to "dangerous grey market drug." This is already happening, and the story has an advantage because there's truth.

Next, our captured regulators will be on board with implementing harsh customs enforcement.

No nuance needed, and HGH will get caught up in it all.

 

[Ghoul]

True, no one cares about HGH, but Chinese GLPs are a problem too big to ignore. And it seems to me that China has every incentive to enable the gray market for GLP-1s for pennies on the dollar, undermine western Pharma, and make money while mocking IP.

I am not an expert, but to my eyes, for the time being, it seems Eli Lilly has lost the production war. After spending untold amounts on R&D, China turns around and sells their same molecule worldwide for $50, and there's nothing anyone can do about it. It's not just lost sales. They are being exposed as emperor has no clothes. Every kit of Reta that makes its way to a suburb is proof that the system doesn't work the way we're told.

Pure speculation, but here's how I think it will play out.

First, we are going to start seeing a lot of stories in the media about quality control, because they need to change the narrative from "miracle weight loss drug" to "dangerous grey market drug." This is already happening, and the story has an advantage because there's truth.

Next, our captured regulators will be on board with implementing harsh customs enforcement.

No nuance needed, and HGH will get caught up in it all.

Yeah, at the customs end, it's either all little vials of white powder getting seized or (mostly) none.

A number of months ago FDA infrastructure at IMFs, where packs are processed by customs, was massively boosted. Yet there's not a hint of increased enforcement against counterfeit GLPs, peptides, or meds in general.

Part of that may be the administration's combative relationship with big Pharma.

Despite conventional thinking that they're "friends of big corporations" that's definitely not the case with drug companies.

Shoving price cuts down their throats (must lower name brand drug prices to equal the lowest a drug is sold for in other developed countries, ie, "Most Favored Nation Pricing"), and massive tarrifs on brand name (not generic) drugs manufactured outside the US, unless they're actively building drug manufacturing plants in the US. It's now at $270 BILLION dollars in current and committed near term new manufacturing and R&D facilities being built in the US.

The admin has said they want to see GLPs @ $150 a month.

So looking the other way as GLPs come in from China en masse, and not going too hard after compounders clearly breaking the law (who are still advertising openly), may be low key indirect pressure to get Eli and Novo to cooperate.

If this is the case, as soon as some massive drop in US prices of Wegovy and Zepbound are announced, that's probobly a good sign to get orders from China in quickly. The Quid Pro Quo for the lower prices from Eli and Novo may very well be the government finally exercising its powers to protect their (thinner profit margin but higher volume) sales by coming down hard on illegal imports and compounders, and every other peptide and rHGH is likely to get caught up in that enforcement.

 

[Whistles77]

straight BS. If one of them has more odd of of getting banned its the GLP1s. Trillions dollars markets. GH isnt even a market in iself, no one cares except a thousand cheap bodybuilders around the world.

Receiving end is a non problem. Problem is always production, thus legality.

In the recent March CBP operation thousands of vials of peptides were seized and letters sent out about importing illegal growth hormone, no matter what the peptide was. CBP didn't distinguish the contents of generic vials of powder, they all seized.

Whatever you believe about the market size, there is precedent for all peptides being seized for being human growth hormone and designated a dangerous chemical.

 

[hellogre2]

In the recent March CBP operation thousands of vials of peptides were seized and letters sent out about importing illegal growth hormone, no matter what the peptide was. CBP didn't distinguish the contents of generic vials of powder, they all seized.

Whatever you believe about the market size, there is precedent for all peptides being seized for being human growth hormone and designated a dangerous chemical.

in the recent CBP march CBP operation "thousands of vials of peptides were seizred"

dont you even reid what you write and dont see how stupid and anecdotic it is ?

 

[Whistles77]

in the recent CBP march CBP operation "thousands of vials of peptides were seizred"

dont you even reid what you write and dont see how stupid and anecdotic it is ?

Read not reid
Seized not seizred
Anecdotal not anecdotic

Thanks for your literary feedback

 

[hellogre2]

Read not reid
Seized not seizred
Anecdotal not anecdotic

Thanks for your literary feedback

Yup, thats the average effort I put writing in your native langage when im talking to the average MAGA with 80IQ.

You should be honored.
I do best with Ghoul because he is intelligent enough to convince the average us meathead and thus be dangerous. But, dumb enough to write anything intelligent outside of his 10 premium IA app.

 

[Jemifus]

The Quid Pro Quo for the lower prices from Eli and Novo may very well be the government finally exercising its powers to protect their (thinner profit margin but higher volume) sales by coming down hard on illegal imports and compounders, and every other peptide and rHGH is likely to get caught up in that enforcement.

Lilly and Novo are almost certainly demanding this as a condition of agreeing to a big price drop. They'd be stupid not to, right?

I think enforcement against the compounders is probably the big one. It's difficult for customs to be any more surgical in their enforcement, and the gray market is dwarfed by the compounding market. Having the FDA actually enforce compounding rules seems like a no-brainer in exchange for cheap name brand GLP1s.

 

[hcgfiend123456]

True, no one cares about HGH, but Chinese GLPs are a problem too big to ignore. And it seems to me that China has every incentive to enable the gray market for GLP-1s for pennies on the dollar, undermine western Pharma, and make money while mocking IP.

I am not an expert, but to my eyes, for the time being, it seems Eli Lilly has lost the production war. After spending untold amounts on R&D, China turns around and sells their same molecule worldwide for $50, and there's nothing anyone can do about it. It's not just lost sales. They are being exposed as emperor has no clothes. Every kit of Reta that makes its way to a suburb is proof that the system doesn't work the way we're told.

Pure speculation, but here's how I think it will play out.

First, we are going to start seeing a lot of stories in the media about quality control, because they need to change the narrative from "miracle weight loss drug" to "dangerous grey market drug." This is already happening, and the story has an advantage because there's truth.

Next, our captured regulators will be on board with implementing harsh customs enforcement.

No nuance needed, and HGH will get caught up in it all.

What's crazy is most of the glp1 kits that are tested with Jano are 99%+ pure. I've seen some as high as 99.8%


That's so high for a " dangerous grey market drug ".

 

[ParquetPatquet]

Lowering GLP1 prices to 150/month would probably also take care of most of the gray market growth too. That's still a ~10x difference between compound and gray, but more palatable to vastly more people.

 

[zpped]

Lowering GLP1 prices to 150/month would probably also take care of most of the gray market growth too. That's still a ~10x difference between compound and gray, but more palatable to vastly more people.

The vast majority of the grey market consumers are buying over priced single vials from US resellers. So $150/month is pretty close to what they are paying.

 

[sionnach]

The vast majority of the grey market consumers are buying over priced single vials from US resellers. So $150/month is pretty close to what they are paying.

 

[Ghoul]

What's crazy is most of the glp1 kits that are tested with Jano are 99%+ pure. I've seen some as high as 99.8%


That's so high for a " dangerous grey market drug ".

Not to single you out, you're among the vast majority in this regard.

"Purity" in normal speech means "more of what you want and less of what you don't.".

That's not what it means in the HPLC testing at all. You could have a vial that contains 0% of the peptide you're expecting and a 99.99% "purity" result with HPLC.

The easiest way to grasp what I'm saying is to try and find the answer to this question:

"Would a lab analyzing peptides like Tirzapatide or rHGH produced by underground sources, for end users trying to determine identity and purity (using the everyday definition) be able to accurately do so solely with SEC-HPLC and RP-HPLC?"

Shattering illusions doesn't make one very popular around here, so I'll leave it to others to find and report the answer to the above.

 

[hcgfiend123456]

Not to single you out, you're among the vast majority in this regard.

"Purity" in normal speech means "more of what you want and less of what you don't.".

That's not what it means in the HPLC testing at all. You could have a vial that contains 0% of the peptide you're expecting and a 99.99% "purity" result with HPLC.

The easiest way to grasp what I'm saying is to try and find the answer to this question:

"Would a lab analyzing peptides like Tirzapatide or rHGH produced by underground sources, for end users trying to determine identity and purity (using the everyday definition) be able to accurately do so solely with SEC-HPLC and RP-HPLC?"

Shattering illusions doesn't make one very popular around here, so I'll leave it to others to find and report the answer to the above.

Ah. So you are saying something like NMR or GCMS would need to be done in order to verify authenticity. Interesting point. I did not know this. Again thank you for your interesting take on things.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Ah. So you are saying something like NMR or GCMS would need to be done in order to verify authenticity. Interesting point. I did not know this. Again thank you for your interesting take on things.

No one is going to pay for that testing. Might as well use hplc lol

 

[zpped]

Ah. So you are saying something like NMR or GCMS would need to be done in order to verify authenticity. Interesting point. I did not know this. Again thank you for your interesting take on things.

What do you even mean by "authenticity"?
The point is the amount of testing required to show what every ingredient in the vial is is astronomical. Then you have to determine if any given (or specific combination/amount) ingredients are safe. It's a fools errand.

 

[bigforyouben]

Lowering GLP1 prices to 150/month would probably also take care of most of the gray market growth too. That's still a ~10x difference between compound and gray, but more palatable to vastly more people.

At $150/month for pharma I'd drop UGL tirz in a heartbeat.

 

[hcgfiend123456]

What do you even mean by "authenticity"?
The point is the amount of testing required to show what every ingredient in the vial is is astronomical. Then you have to determine if any given (or specific combination/amount) ingredients are safe. It's a fools errand.

When I say authenticity I mean....Authenticity.

A clean HPLC report doesn't necessarily 100% substantiate clean test results.

Using GCMS or NMR is more reliable to verify the contents of the compound VS the purity.

 

[Pundanto]

I'm still green to all this so i still find it interesting how the FDA bans peptides over ‘safety concerns’ and ‘lack of clinical trials,’ yet these bans just push a bunch of people (like me) to the gray market with all its testing loopholes and purity illusions.

Wonder which one is more of a net negative.. strict bans that drives people to risky sources, or no bans and potential risks from unregulated peptides

 

[Ghoul]

I'm still green to all this so i still find it interesting how the FDA bans peptides over ‘safety concerns’ and ‘lack of clinical trials,’ yet these bans just push a bunch of people (like me) to the gray market with all its testing loopholes and purity illusions.

Wonder which one is more of a net negative.. strict bans that drives people to risky sources, or no bans and potential risks from unregulated peptides

Technically speaking, the active ingredient suppliers and compounding pharmacies selling peptides at pretty juicy markups could just sponsor the studies needed to demonstrate safety and efficacy to shut the FDA up.

 

[Thorshammer]

Just curious with the tight parameters of 99.9 people are discussing not even possible there is margin of error HPLC is not magic . These two tests were run on the exact same batch I had 5 samples tested the other 2 were 93 and 94.. Melting point was 99.4° to 100.1° done by me before I sent samples. Analytical chemistry has a percentage of error to be expected.