STOCK UP: Don't say you weren't warned! (US)


 
With the de minimis ending in a month it's highly advised to place orders NOW in order to get your shipments before the 8/29/25 cutoff.

A great time to stock up!
 
FWIW, Proctor & Gamble announced yesterday (2025-07-29) that they are raising all of their prices by 25% to offset the cost of the tariffs with India. The 25% matches the ad valorem tariff being imposed by the Trump administration.

If vendors from India do the paperwork DDP, I expect their prices to go up by 25% as well. Otherwise, the tariffs will be payable by the consumers which will entail a customs hold on product until the 25% tariff is remitted to CBP or via the consumer's customs broker.

Of course, CBP may inspect inbound packages and determine an adverse valuation which could lead to penalties and/or additional tariff to be paid.
 
FWIW, Proctor & Gamble announced yesterday (2025-07-29) that they are raising all of their prices by 25% to offset the cost of the tariffs with India. The 25% matches the ad valorem tariff being imposed by the Trump administration.

If vendors from India do the paperwork DDP, I expect their prices to go up by 25% as well. Otherwise, the tariffs will be payable by the consumers which will entail a customs hold on product until the 25% tariff is remitted to CBP or via the consumer's customs broker.

Of course, CBP may inspect inbound packages and determine an adverse valuation which could lead to penalties and/or additional tariff to be paid.

If the contents of the package are properly declared they'll be seized by the FDA. You are not allowed to import prescription drugs, with very few exceptions.
 
If the contents of the package are properly declared they'll be seized by the FDA. You are not allowed to import prescription drugs, with very few exceptions.
Unless of course you have a prescription, and the amount of prescription medication is under the defined limits. The question remains as to whether package inspections increase dramatically or marginally, and whether said inspections are any more rigorous than those we have seen to date.

The EO specifically instructs FDA to increase inspection of foreign manufacturing facilities but makes no changes for parcel-level inspections.

Your point is well taken though and your clarification an important one. Thanks!
 
Unless of course you have a prescription, and the amount of prescription medication is under the defined limits. The question remains as to whether package inspections increase dramatically or marginally, and whether said inspections are any more rigorous than those we have seen to date.

The EO specifically instructs FDA to increase inspection of foreign manufacturing facilities but makes no changes for parcel-level inspections.

Your point is well taken though and your clarification an important one. Thanks!

Even with a prescription you can't import foreign drugs under most circumstances.

 
Even with a prescription you can't import foreign drugs under most circumstances.

Goddammit! You don't have to be right so damned often, do you? Just kidding, I appreciate the clarification and correction.

Thankfully, I'm fairly well stocked on all fronts, but I will pick up a few things this next week or so to add another year or two buffer. Thanks again for the heads-up!
 
FWIW, Proctor & Gamble announced yesterday (2025-07-29) that they are raising all of their prices by 25% to offset the cost of the tariffs with India. The 25% matches the ad valorem tariff being imposed by the Trump administration.

If vendors from India do the paperwork DDP, I expect their prices to go up by 25% as well. Otherwise, the tariffs will be payable by the consumers which will entail a customs hold on product until the 25% tariff is remitted to CBP or via the consumer's customs broker.

Of course, CBP may inspect inbound packages and determine an adverse valuation which could lead to penalties and/or additional tariff to be paid.
In that case there might be a "Duty Due" notice received by the end user which would have to be paid before release of the package.
 
Depending on whether the package was sent DDP or Delivered Duty Paid or not. Definitely something to discuss with a vendor prior to purchase.
Yes, I once received one for a package a few years back and it was like a couple bucks for an electronic item I bought direct from Japan. Sent a check for the duty and then my package was released.

Oh yes something to ask about before purchasing items from someone in a foreign country.
 
Well fuck me this is really bad.

But realistically do they even have the manpower to inspect all packages?
 
Manpower will definitely be a bottleneck. I foresee the seizure rate to increase, but this will not completely shut down the supply for us. The Chinese are smart. This will continue to be a game of cat and mouse. There are so many packages. There are so many ports. There are so many methods of packing up small boxes, repacking them, and shipping them as large boxes to get stuff in. Forwarders have been doing this for a long time.

Regulations never stop supply when there is demand for products; it only sparks creativity.
 
I dunno guys. My personal opinion is Trump is full of shit. It is infinitely easier to secure the border to prevent illegal immigration versus searching millions of tiny packages and letters that flow into the country every day. The man screamed for years about building "the wall" and deporting illegals, and nothing.

All that said, I never had an international order of drugs seized until 2024. So what do I know. And that was uncontrolled pharmaceuticals from India. Nothing radical at all. Blood pressure meds and such.
 
I dunno guys. My personal opinion is Trump is full of shit. It is infinitely easier to secure the border to prevent illegal immigration versus searching millions of tiny packages and letters that flow into the country every day. The man screamed for years about building "the wall" and deporting illegals, and nothing.

All that said, I never had an international order of drugs seized until 2024. So what do I know. And that was uncontrolled pharmaceuticals from India. Nothing radical at all. Blood pressure meds and such.
I despise the Democrats and their role in insane food prices. We elected Trump to stop inflation and all he has done is impose tariffs that make things more expensive.

And yes his policies are driving the raws shortage. Guy has failed me, as far as I am concerned.
 
I dunno guys. My personal opinion is Trump is full of shit. It is infinitely easier to secure the border to prevent illegal immigration versus searching millions of tiny packages and letters that flow into the country every day. The man screamed for years about building "the wall" and deporting illegals, and nothing.

All that said, I never had an international order of drugs seized until 2024. So what do I know. And that was uncontrolled pharmaceuticals from India. Nothing radical at all. Blood pressure meds and such.

There are plenty of countries with near watertight customs. Vendors have listed them as "No reship" or no send at all,


The slow march of policies tightening the noose has been slowly put into place over the last 5 years, and we're just seeing the end stages of it,

1. End tax free imports via de minimus: 70% reduction in volume of packages. Much smaller volume to focus on.

2. Require 20x the detail previously required in customs paperwork, and it must be submitted electronically prior to arrival. Patterns are recognized by computer analysis, packages are flagged for extra scrutiny and automatic systems kick that pack off the conveyor belt to CBP officer for inspection. Your previous seizure will be a data element in the "risk score" when your address appears as the recipient in the data sent to CBP.

3. Enforce the regulation that shipping companies must establish positive ID of shipper. Like banking "KYC", know your customer requirements.

4. Make shipping company financially liable for false declarations on packages containing illegal items.

5. Require shipping. companies to deposit $1,000,000+ bonds with CBP for duties and FINES.

6. Impose escalating fines for each package found with illegal drugs, starting at $10,000, rising to $500,000. Additional fines if the sender wasn't positively ID'd.

Now shipping companies in China require ID, and have their own "mini customs" scanning packs prior to accepting them. If they accept packs from companies unfamiliar to them at all.

Obviously some small quantities of packs are still getting through, but the few vendors left sending schedule III Drugs are using multiple shipping lines, knowing as soon as one pack is caught, that line is
burned for them.. Eventually they will run out of shipping options. Sooner or later billion dollar logistics firms will get the authorities in China to do something to the shippers of illegal goods fucking up their business.

It's about finding pressure points and pushing them, using data and AI to focus inspection resources on suspicious packs, motivating shipping companies to police themselves via huge fines, not hand examining every pack like it's 1950.
 
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I despise the Democrats and their role in insane food prices. We elected Trump to stop inflation and all he has done is impose tariffs that make things more expensive.

And yes his policies are driving the raws shortage. Guy has failed me, as far as I am concerned.
I work at a US Company that buys parts for machinery globally. There are very few domestic suppliers of these parts so tariffs are inevitable.

All those tariffs say that they're going against the sellers of those foreign parts which looks great on paper. But guess who actually pays?

That's right -- The US COMPANY is eating the tariffs! Sounds like it makes any sense? Ya, me either!

Former Trump Supporter but wondering wtf is going on. Hoping Elon is wrong about what's coming. But he gets almost everything right?

(Still a Hillary Hater)
 
There are plenty of countries with near watertight customs. Vendors have listed them as "No reship" or no send at all,


The slow march of policies tightening the noose has been slowly put into place over the last 5 years, and we're just seeing the end stages of it,

1. End tax free imports via de minimus: 70% reduction in volume of packages. Much smaller volume to focus on.

2. Require 20x the detail previously required in customs paperwork, and it must be submitted electronically prior to arrival. Patterns are recognized by computer analysis, packages are flagged for extra scrutiny and automatic systems kick that pack off the conveyor belt to CBP officer for inspection. Your previous seizure will be a data element in the "risk score" when your address appears as the recipient in the data sent to CBP.

3. Enforce the regulation that shipping companies must establish positive ID of shipper. Like banking "KYC", know your customer requirements.

4. Make shipping company financially liable for false declarations on packages containing illegal items.

5. Require shipping. companies to deposit $1,000,000+ bonds with CBP for duties and FINES.

6. Impose escalating fines for each package found with illegal drugs, starting at $10,000, rising to $500,000. Additional fines if the sender wasn't positively ID'd.

Now shipping companies in China require ID, and have their own "mini customs" scanning packs prior to accepting them. If they accept packs from companies unfamiliar to them at all.

Obviously some small quantities of packs are still getting through, but the few vendors left sending schedule III Drugs are using multiple shipping lines, knowing as soon as one pack is caught, that line is
burned for them.. Eventually they will run out of shipping options. Sooner or later billion dollar logistics firms will get the authorities in China to do something to the shippers of illegal goods fucking up their business.

It's about finding pressure points and pushing them, using data and AI to focus inspection resources on suspicious packs, motivating shipping companies to police themselves via huge fines, not hand examining every pack like it's 1950.
You routinely speak with authority.

But you are missing the point about these other countries.

The nature of United States Dollar hegemony demands the US import a shit ton of everything. Over 75% of all foreign exchange is settled in United States Dollars - something like $100 trillion a year. The breadth of US total financial dominance is not well understood by most.

The US exports dollars. The only way this system works is if the US imports shit from other countries. I don't see how "watertight" customs can ever work.

And then there is the international drug trade, which has long been facilitated and tolerated by the government as it was a way to handle "hot money" and drive it into the US financial system.
 

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