Well based on Russias initial attack, it seems their goal was to take Kyiv and thus basically all of Ukraine. That did not unfold the way they expected, so they had to move the goal posts to save face.
Lukashenko had shown some map earlier in the war that implied Russia was planning to link to transnistria in Moldova, that failed to happen thus far as well.
I can't disagree.
Obviously Russian strategy has shifted more than once so far.
But I'm not convinced that thier objective was ever to occupy all of Ukraine. Maybe the parts where they can get enough local native support for sure. But I don't think they had any reason to think they'd get any real support west of Kiev, or even the Dnieper river for that matter.
It just doesn't make sense that they'd try to "occupy" a large area where the residents would be the base of an insurgency.
For the record im not american, so im not speaking some biased pro-biden shit, im just looking at whats happening. I do however think Russia has no business being in Ukraine, and i think Putin over estimated the capabilities of his military.
I'm not sure that's the case either. As Putin has chosen to use less than 20% or less of his available military capabilities.
He seems to me like he wants to halt the expansion of NATO in Ukraine under some kind of terms that leaves Russia open to do business in Europe with regard to energy trading.
Otherwise he could've simply bombed all Ukraine into the stone age and walked away already.
You can point to his troop numbers and lay blame there, but that merely proves my point, he (or his generals) thought they could achieve their targets with the allotted troops, only to discover they had over estimated their own capabilities.
As i stated earlier, putin can throw a lot more troops at this, much like Stalin did in WW2, im sure youve seen the massive losses of life the soviets incurred in WW2 as Stalins strategy was to send as many poor SOBs into the fray as he could muster. Putin has yet to do that, it worked for Stalin, but the assymetrical loss of life was astounding. Could Putins regime survive that kind of loss of Russian lives, politically? Im not sure, and i get the feeling he doesnt want to find out either. Im sure if Russia sent all the troops they could muster they would storm Ukraine by sheer numbers, but it would be at a substantial human cost to Russia and that loss may unravel Putins grip on power.
I really can't say what thier intentions are and I'm just speculating.
It does not make any sense at all that he wanted to "occupy all of Ukraine" then attempted to "conquer other countries".
He knows he doesn't have the capability to do that even if he wants to. I don't see any evidence anywhere that was his goal and his actions certainly don't point in that direction.
As far as regime change in Russia?
Let's be realistic, that's not going to happen. Russia has plenty food, fuel and resources to take care of it's people.
Europe by contrast, does not and will soon be hungry and cold. I think we'll see governments in Europe change first and even Joe Biden is more likely to get tossed out on his ass over this than Putin.
Also hughinn, im curious to hear your thoughts on all the recent deaths of prominent Russians. Whats going on with that? Why are all these prominent russians dying from suicides and murder-suicides? Somethings going on internally in Russia, and i dont think its a mental health issue.
I'm not sure what to make of it.
It could be the Russian version of the Clinton "suicides" or it could simply be anguish because the US government has siezed alot of wealth from many prominent Russian people and they're in despair.
Right now I just don't have enough information to draw any conclusion of my own.
