Romney 2012

[Michael Scally MD]

Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased
Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased - NYTimes.com

Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.

Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

But the state polls may not be right. They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16 percent.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Princeton Election Consortium
Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history

Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.0%, Bayesian Prediction 99.8%

 

[Michael Scally MD]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxMD02zU9SE]Mitt Romney speaking about Mormon faith - YouTube[/ame]

 

[newbie23]

oops

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Tough Loss Leaves GOP at a Crossroads
Tough Loss Leaves GOP at a Crossroads - WSJ.com

 

[Michael Scally MD]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiQZBgdVn-A]Romney's Loses the 2012 Election: Romney's Complete Concession Speech - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_x9s_piBO3o]Mitt Romney's Greatest Hits (2012 Edition) - YouTube[/ame]