Romney 2012

Michael Scally MD

Doctor of Medicine
10+ Year Member
[This was written about three months ago, but it is as good as any to start the ball rolling on the eventual choice. The best update is the recent SC debate.]

A Graphical Overview of the 2012 Republican Field
A Graphical Overview of the 2012 Republican Field - NYTimes.com

There is almost exactly one year to go until the Iowa caucuses, which are tentatively scheduled to take place on Feb. 6, 2012. No mainstream Republican candidate has yet declared for the presidency, but that is sure to change soon, perhaps as soon as there is a lull in the news — something we have not had in weeks, because of the Tucson shootings and the Egyptian protests.

The Republican field may eventually grow to be fairly large, so it would be useful to examine the landscape through a technique I have used in the past: locating the positions of the potential candidates spatially.

One dimension is obvious: we can classify the candidates from left to right, from relatively more moderate to relatively more conservative. But another dimension that is often salient in the primaries, and perhaps especially so for Republicans next year, is what we might think of as the insider/outsider axis: whether the candidate is viewed as part of the Republican establishment, or as a critic of it.

Let me show you the chart, and then we can begin to work our way through it:

9219
 

Attachments

  • gopchart.jpg
    gopchart.jpg
    15.7 KB · Views: 61
Last edited:
Re: Republicans 2012

The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For May 6, 2011
The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For May 6, 2011

This week was an important week for American democracy, as the GOP met in South Carolina for a grand debate, in which (all most some) a handful of longshots and holographic screensaver of Tim Pawlenty, competed to (win the GOP nomination make an impression with voters) win the approval of Frank Luntz's focus group.

It was a wondrous occasion. The four Fox News moderators operated at a breakneck pace that ran in inverse proportion to the debate's importance, and there was a constantly dinging bell that kept us all wondering if we had finally come to "Final Jeopardy" at the appointed time when Watson the Computer was to be wheeled out on stage to take on all comers in the category of "Potent Potables."

The clear winner turned out to be Godfathers' Pizza magnate Herman Cain! He bowled over the Luntz focus group, and honestly, it was easy to see why. Cain's got one of the best speaking voices in politics -- a room-filling baritone that seems to escape from Cain's throat as if it were as easy as breathing. And his feel for clever ripostes compared well against the typical candidate blather.

Sure: most of his "plans" for America were to sit down and come up with "plans" -- something many critics found absurd, but I think it's definitely possible to overstate the extent to which politicians present "plans" at debates. And as far as Cain not having a fully-realized strategy for Afghanistan, I'm a little lenient in this regard, because it's not like the Joint Chiefs and the CIA are giving security briefings to dudes who own pizza delivery companies. (Or are they?)

The rest of the field competed for second place, and mostly lost to Rick Santorum. Ron Paul's full-throated supporters hooted and clapped for their man, but it didn't leave much of an impression on the pundits in the post-debate spin room. But so what? While everyone was talking, Paul's supporters were raising insane amounts of campaign cash for their hero. Gary Johnson mostly came off like a libertarian dude who likes to toke up and philosophize.

And the moderators were really adversarial to Tim Pawlenty. At one point they actually played a video clip to embarrass him, and it led to the weird spectacle of Pawlenty giving a cringing apology for what seemed like forever.
 
Re: Republicans 2012

http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/gop-debate/1325764/

[ame="http://www.hulu.com/watch/239637/saturday-night-live-gop-debate"]Hulu - Saturday Night Live: GOP Debate@@AMEPARAM@@http://www.hulu.com/embed/DR8-nBDS5aqZbn_IRgG0Mw@@AMEPARAM@@DR8-nBDS5aqZbn_IRgG0Mw[/ame]
 
Last edited:
Re: Republicans 2012

Gingrich Set to Run, With Wife in Central Role
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/10/us/politics/10gingrich.html

By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG
Published: May 9, 2011

WASHINGTON — Callista Bisek’s friends from rural Wisconsin were stunned when, well over a decade ago, she confided that she was secretly dating an older, married man: Newt Gingrich.

Still in her 20s when they met, Ms. Bisek had been raised in a town of 1,500, the only child of a meat packer and a secretary. A churchgoing Roman Catholic, she had attended a Lutheran college where she practiced piano five hours a day. “Is this the wisest course for you to be taking?” Karen Olson, her best friend, recalled asking.

Today, Ms. Bisek is Mrs. Gingrich, married for 11 years, but perhaps best remembered for the six-year affair that contributed to her husband’s political downfall. His critics cast Mr. Gingrich, the former House speaker, as a hypocrite who sought to impeach a president over infidelity while engaging in it himself with Ms. Bisek, who was a Congressional aide.

Yet in a curious tale of Washington reinvention, the onetime congressman from Georgia is counting on the third Mrs. Gingrich for his political redemption.

As he prepares for a Republican presidential primary run — he said Monday that he would formally declare his intentions on Wednesday — Mr. Gingrich is presenting himself as a family man who has embraced Catholicism and found God, with his wife as a kind of character witness. Depending on one’s point of view, she is a reminder of his complicated past, or his secret political weapon.

Barely a sentence goes by without Mr. Gingrich uttering the words “Callista and I.” They are constantly together — at the National Catholic Prayer Breakfast in Washington, at conservative political conferences, at book signings and screenings of their documentary films. She is the voice on his audio books; her face is all over his 2012 Web site, where visitors can read “A Note from Newt & Callista.”

At Villanova University on a recent Thursday night, Mrs. Gingrich warmed up the audience for a showing of the couple’s movie about Pope John Paul II by signing books and DVDs in her left-handed curlicue. But when asked whether she is ready for the scrutiny a campaign would bring, she smiled tightly and grew silent.

Mr. Gingrich answered for her. “Seems to be,” he said, with uncharacteristic tentativeness. “We’ve talked about it for a year. It’s difficult.”

Mr. Gingrich is well aware that social conservatives are skeptical of him because he did not emphasize their issues in Congress, but also because of his two divorces and admission of infidelity. He has been meeting with religious leaders around the country to address their concerns.

Deal Hudson, president of Catholic Advocate, a conservative group, said that if Mrs. Gingrich “wants to be first lady,” she would probably have to discuss their relationship as well.

So far she has not. Both Gingriches declined to be interviewed for this article.

“They would say they wished they had met in a different time in their lives under different circumstances,” said Jackie Cottrell, a friend who worked with Mrs. Gingrich as a staff member on Capitol Hill. “But it’s important to note that they brought their family together in a loving way.”

Mr. Gingrich took up golf because his wife plays; she has adopted his political agenda. In 2009, after years of attending Mass to hear her sing in her church choir, he converted to Catholicism. And when Mrs. Gingrich, who plays French horn with the city band in Fairfax, Va., appears in concerts, her husband totes her black instrument case. “I’m a band groupie and a choir groupie,” Mr. Gingrich likes to say.

How eager she is for him to run after he has been out of office since 1999 is a matter of discussion among their friends. Vin Weber, the former Republican congressman from Minnesota, said he is “quite convinced” Mrs. Gingrich is happily on board. “They’ve been out of public life,” Mr. Weber said, “and I think she misses the excitement of that.”

Others say she wants her husband to run because he wants to. She has hired Ms. Olson as her chief of staff; she is also writing a children’s book, due out in September — just in time for her to go on a book tour and reintroduce herself to the public as the primary race heats up.

“I think she has stepped out of her comfort zone more to promote the movies and the books and has found that she enjoyed that,” said Ms. Cottrell. “That’s been a little bit of a toe in the water.“

At 45, 22 years her husband’s junior, Mrs. Gingrich always looks perfectly composed. She favors an almost retro look — platinum hair teased and sprayed, bold-colored suits accessorized by a triple strand of pearls or eye-popping diamond jewelry. In college, friends say, she once signed up for an 8 a.m. bowling class and rolled a 200 wearing a pencil skirt.

Still, they worry aloud that her “physical presence,” in the words of Matt Gunderson, a childhood friend, makes her seem distant or stuffy. They see a woman who, caricatured as a “blond bombshell” in the press years ago, guards her public image.

“That’s a role she has had to assume,” said Tim Peter, a classmate of Mrs. Gingrich’s at Luther College in Decorah, Iowa, “because that one morning you go out for the paper without your makeup on, that’s the day you wind up on the front page.”

As a young girl in Whitehall, Wis., Ms. Bisek experienced politics through the prism of community ties, not ideology. Mr. Gunderson’s elder brother, Steve, was a congressman; as high school students, Ms. Bisek and her friends knocked on doors and appeared in parades as a singing campaign troupe.

“We were ‘Glee’ before ‘Glee,’ ” the younger Mr. Gunderson said.

If she had a career dream, it was playing for an orchestra, not making headlines in Washington. Yet her high school yearbook suggests a yearning to stand out.

“Some people strive to be one of the many,” she wrote. “I strive to be one of the few.”

She worked for Representative Gunderson, a Republican, in Washington after college, eventually landing a job with the House Agriculture Committee, where she stayed until Democrats took over in 2007. Today, she runs Gingrich Productions, making documentaries in conjunction with Citizens United, the nonprofit group that drew national attention in a Supreme Court case last year. While Citizens United does technical production, Mrs. Gingrich, a former music major, is especially hands-on with the musical scores.

She and her husband work from adjoining offices in a building on K Street, Washington’s lobbying corridor, home to the sprawling enterprise that Gingrich aides call “Newt Inc.,” which produces books and films at a dizzying pace. Their efforts are planned around what Ms. Olson calls their “thematic — the message of what they stand for.”

Their new focus is American exceptionalism, the notion that the United States is unique and stands above other nations. Mrs. Gingrich’s children’s book is devoted to the topic; so is one by Mr. Gingrich, due out next month. It is also the theme of their newest documentary — no surprise given that many Republicans, including Mr. Gingrich, claim that President Obama rejects exceptionalism.

Mr. Gingrich will have to dismantle his busy operation for a presidential run, though aides say Gingrich Productions will survive, with his wife in charge. Looking ahead to the campaign, Gingrich intimates are already envisioning how Mrs. Gingrich, with her college ties to Iowa, might help her husband there.

The same friends who tried to talk her out of out of dating him more than a decade ago have concluded that she knew what she was doing, and are banking that voters will forgive and forget. Ms. Olson summed up their history in what might just become a campaign catchphrase.

“They’re a great couple,” she said, “that had a nontraditional start.”
 
Re: Republicans 2012

Newt Gingrich Can't Save the GOP
by Mark McKinnon
Newt Gingrich Will Shake Up 2012 Presidential Race but Can’t Save the GOP - The Daily Beast

Out with The Donald, in with The Newt.

Newt Gingrich is unlikely to woo enough voters to win the GOP presidential nomination, but he is certain to make it more interesting. Gingrich is an idea factory, an organizational genius, and a prodigious fundraiser. His issues-oriented American Solutions “citizen action network” reports more than 2.4 million members. And according to The Wall Street Journal, Gingrich has “raised $32 million between 2009 and 2010—more than all his potential 2012 rivals combined.”

But Gingrich also has the whiff of “been there, done that.” And while he can produce an avalanche of substance and process and impress with his intellect, he rarely excites. Gingrich leads with his head and his mouth; great leaders inspire with their hearts.
 
Re: Republicans 2012

[ame=http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/385914/may-10-2011/newt-gingrich-and-donald-trump-announce-future-announcements]Newt Gingrich and Donald Trump Announce Future Announcements - The Colbert Report - 5/10/11 - Video Clip | Comedy Central[/ame]
 
Re: Republicans 2012

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRSz21Vedxc]YouTube - It's Official: Newt Gingrich is Running for President![/ame]
 
Re: Republicans 2012

Newt in His Own Words: 33 Years of Bomb-Throwing
Your guide to Gingrich's greatest rhetorical hits.
Newt in His Own Words: 33 Years of Bomb-Throwing | Mother Jones

Newt Gingrich, a preseason 2012 Republican contender, likes to present himself as an ideas man. He is a former college professor and the architect of the ideology-driven 1994 Republican Revolution. But for all his references to Camus and Clausewitz, there's another side to the former House speaker—a verbal bomb-thrower who's never met a political crisis he couldn't analogize to the annexation of the Sudetenland.

Gingrich was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1978. He learned quickly that a back-bencher in the minority party could distinguish himself and gain attention in Washington by employing extreme rhetoric. Ever in attack-mode, Gingrich swiftly moved up the ranks within the House GOP caucus. Democrats accused him of practicing "skinhead politics," and a 1989 Washington Post profile declared him "notorious" and "defiant." But his political thuggery worked, and he led the GOPers in their historic retaking of the House and became speaker. He did not last long in the post. After a rocky stint—marked by a government shutdown, his party's sex-and-lies impeachment crusade against President Bill Clinton, and several ethics controversies involving Gingrich—the GOP lost seats in the 1998 election, and Gingrich resigned as speaker and left the House. (During this time, he was having an extramarital affair with a congressional aide who would eventually become his third, and present, wife.)

In his post-House years, Gingrich, at times, toned down the rhetoric. He worked with Hillary Clinton on health care IT issues. He sat on a couch with Nancy Pelosi to highlight their joint support for climate change action. After the 2008 election, he called for policymaking that would unite Democrats, Republicans, and independents. He blasted a candidate for GOP chairman who circulated a parody song called "Barack the Magic Negro." Still, he wasn't able to escape the siren call of overheated oratory. He repeatedly bashed the "secular left" for attempting to destroy the country, and as he has moved closer to declaring a presidential bid, he increasingly has returned to the hooligan ways of his past.

So here's a rather incomplete guide to Gingrich's greatest (or worst) hits of the past 33 years. As he might say, it's the most accurate, predictive model for his future behavior.
 
Re: Republicans 2012

Why Newt Gingrich Will Never Be President
Newt Gingrich 2012 Presidential Campaign: Why He'll Never Be President - The Daily Beast

I don’t know much in this life. I can’t tell you who’s going to win the NBA championship or when the Pakistani ISI will become a bulwark against extremism or what year Keith Richards’ lungs will finally cry uncle. But I do know this: Newt Gingrich will never be president of the United States.


Newt Gingrich's Dirty Polluter Money
Newt Gingrich for President 2012: Polluters Among Biggest Donors - The Daily Beast

Nixon created it, Newt wants to scrap it.

The newest Republican contender for the White House says the Environmental Protection Agency should be replaced with a more business-oriented model. And it just so happens that Newt Gingrich has drawn big-time financial support from huge energy companies that would love to be liberated from EPA regulation.
 
Re: Republicans 2012

Obama's Running Mate
Mitt Romney's ObamaCare problem.
Review & Outlook: Obama's Running Mate - WSJ.com

Mitt Romney travels to Ann Arbor today to deliver what his campaign bills as a major address laying out his "2012 principles for health-care reform." These are likely to be sensible, but what we'll be listening for is how he explains his health-care principles of five years ago.

As everyone knows, the health reform Mr. Romney passed in 2006 as Massachusetts Governor was the prototype for President Obama's version and gave national health care a huge political boost. Mr. Romney now claims ObamaCare should be repealed, but his failure to explain his own role or admit any errors suggests serious flaws both in his candidacy and as a potential President.
 
Re: Republicans 2012

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zig7injJtLo]YouTube - GOP 2012 Field Taking Shape With Gingrich Bid[/ame]
 
Re: Republicans 2012

[ame="http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-may-12-2011/the-nevertrending-story"]The NeverTrending Story - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - 05/12/11 - Video Clip | Comedy Central@@AMEPARAM@@http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:386213@@AMEPARAM@@386213[/ame]
 
Re: Republicans 2012

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiJXHbUDoLk]YouTube - The Trump 'Candidacy' In Two Minutes[/ame]
 
Re: Republicans 2012

God Told Mike Huckabee Not to Run for President

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7xQjhbTZa0]YouTube - "I've Reached A Place Beyond Human Understanding" Mike Huckabee Is NOT Running For President[/ame]
 
Re: Republicans 2012

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXmrOt9LVm8]YouTube - Newt Gingrich: "Any ad which quotes what I said Sunday is a falsehood."[/ame]
 
Re: Republicans 2012

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4ucUCCl0_E]YouTube - ?Is America Ready for Common Sense Solutions??‏[/ame]
 
Re: Republicans 2012



[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLYPT5VA1AQ]YouTube - ?Tim Pawlenty joins GOP presidential race?‏[/ame]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Back
Top