The majority of orders have still been making it through and arriving successfully.
There was a spike in seizure above average for packs a couple months ago and lasted a few weeks, I think it was one of those special operations/crackdowns (there were links and articles about it), but more recently things seem to have returned to baseline.
I see a lot of the reships from that spike are already landing now.
However, I do not know how the new policies that start on August 29th will affect things (see the thread linked below).
No one knows yet. It will just take some time until we all start seeing the results.
Then what do you do when the few years are up?
Worry about it then
We will all learn more from experience and try to adapt as we go.