Home team wins by a grand slam. Hugh is pouting somewhere.
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Russia begins invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter Fifap94
- Start date
Well, I thought Fred Kagan hit it out of the park when he said Russia never really changed their cold war view of us, especially since Putin, and they already hated us. They're meddling in our election, condemning us at conferences, they're supporting dictators. They're not going to just forget this.
Once a peace deal is made, they'll still see Ukraine as a bunch of nazis, still think it's not a real country, the only thing keeping them apart are outsiders. And later once they rebuild they will want to right a wrong there, unless they come to think this was a terrible mistake for them. So when it comes to peace negotiations we need to keep that factored in.
And Kagan is a history professor who taught at West Point, did his thesis on Russian military. His dad is a Lithuanian military history professor too. Together, they advised Petraeus with the surge war plan. His ISW site is where pretty much everyone is going to get military analysis on Ukraine, even Hughinn's libertarian podcasters - they just put their own spin on it.
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I personally think Biden would like to just give Russia the Donbas and Crimea, pivot to China, and kick this can down the road to future administrations. But when you have polls in Ukraine, and they're good polls not propaganda, saying 70-80%+ of Ukrainians don't want peace they want to keep fighting, there's not much you can do.
Julia Ioffe, another expert on Russia talks about this to PBS. She says the Biden administration feels Putin kind of trapped them into this when they wanted to focus elsewhere:
View: https://youtu.be/qEu0oRajJxE?t=3077
And then they get this briefing that the forces are massing, that it looks like an actual invasion of Ukraine could be being mounted. What kind of alarm does that set off inside the White House? And what are the stakes at that moment for President Biden?
Well, you also have—I mean, before that you also have the Biden administration trying to maintain this relationship with Russia, right? Throwing Putin enough bones, enough phone calls, enough summits, enough meetings to keep him happy, to keep him feeling like, you know, Biden says Putin is a worthy adversary, feed his ego just enough to keep him from doing anything crazy, but not actually do anything with him, right?
And at one point one of Biden’s advisers tells me, “Look, we’ll do a summit once a month if we have to to keep him from doing anything crazy.” And as Angela Stent once said, they wanted to park Putin, but he didn’t want to be parked. He wanted to be the No. 1 problem of everybody in the whole world, but especially the No. 1 priority, the No. 1 threat, the No. 1 problem that the White House was dealing with.
So when they do have that summit in June, which was controversial apparently inside the administration, but the reason, as you understand it, was to show a level of respect so that he doesn’t have to go and take a dramatic action to get attention.
Well, he did. He had this massive buildup of troops outside Ukraine, on the Ukrainian border that spring, in April. And he only starts pulling those troops back once he gets a call from Biden and once he gets the promise of a summit, right? And it’s seen as a kind of pacifying of Vladimir Putin: “OK, we’ll give him a summit. Fine, if that keeps him from invading Ukraine, and if it gets him to draw down his forces, fine. What’s it to us?”
And there was a feeling in the fall that maybe he’ll take another summit; maybe we’ll do some more phone calls, and maybe he’ll take something smaller, and he’ll draw down his forces again; that maybe we can pull another kind of—another kind of Geneva and get him to back down again.
But very soon it becomes clear that this is different for Putin; that he’s not going to take any of the exit ramps that the Biden administration is putting out there for him; that he’s blowing through every single exit ramp one by one, and that he’s just stepping on the gas harder and harder and harder.
And how big a moment is that for Joe Biden? He must be realizing that this could be one of the most significant moments of his presidency, this question of whether Putin is going to invade or not.
I think it’s a huge moment for Biden and his staffers. I think it’s a massively frustrating one because this is not what they wanted to be dealing with. They have domestic concerns that they want to deal with. There’s the pivot to Asia that every administration since Bush wants to do, right? They want to get out of the Middle East. They want to stop dealing with Russia. There are other concerns. There’s a whole wide world out there, outside of the Middle East and outside of Russia, that this White House wants to deal with. They don’t want to get stuck here.
And when they realize that this is going to be the thing that defines their presidency geopolitically, there is a kind of frustration and anger that Putin has kind of trapped them into this, that they won’t be able to focus on and accomplish all of these big, lofty things that they had been planning for for the first Biden term.
Why can’t they? He calls him on video conferences. There’s lots of shuttle diplomacy. There are public statements and warnings at press conferences. Why can’t Biden, with all of the threats, with all of the rallying allies, why can’t they dissuade Putin and show him that he shouldn’t take this course of action?
Because Putin wants Ukraine. Because it’s fundamentally an unbridgeable gap. Because this has nothing to do with NATO. This has nothing to do with respect. This has nothing to do with the European—it has nothing to do with any of the things Putin is saying publicly. Putin wants Ukraine. He wants this pan-Slavic super-state with Moscow as the capital that basically folds Ukraine and Belarus into itself, whether officially or unofficially. He wants Ukraine. He doesn’t think it’s a real country. I don’t know how you compromise with somebody who just wants Ukraine, right? That’s not something you could build a bridge across.
Julia Ioffe, another expert on Russia talks about this to PBS. She says the Biden administration feels Putin kind of trapped them into this when they wanted to focus elsewhere:
View: https://youtu.be/qEu0oRajJxE?t=3077
And then they get this briefing that the forces are massing, that it looks like an actual invasion of Ukraine could be being mounted. What kind of alarm does that set off inside the White House? And what are the stakes at that moment for President Biden?
Well, you also have—I mean, before that you also have the Biden administration trying to maintain this relationship with Russia, right? Throwing Putin enough bones, enough phone calls, enough summits, enough meetings to keep him happy, to keep him feeling like, you know, Biden says Putin is a worthy adversary, feed his ego just enough to keep him from doing anything crazy, but not actually do anything with him, right?
And at one point one of Biden’s advisers tells me, “Look, we’ll do a summit once a month if we have to to keep him from doing anything crazy.” And as Angela Stent once said, they wanted to park Putin, but he didn’t want to be parked. He wanted to be the No. 1 problem of everybody in the whole world, but especially the No. 1 priority, the No. 1 threat, the No. 1 problem that the White House was dealing with.
So when they do have that summit in June, which was controversial apparently inside the administration, but the reason, as you understand it, was to show a level of respect so that he doesn’t have to go and take a dramatic action to get attention.
Well, he did. He had this massive buildup of troops outside Ukraine, on the Ukrainian border that spring, in April. And he only starts pulling those troops back once he gets a call from Biden and once he gets the promise of a summit, right? And it’s seen as a kind of pacifying of Vladimir Putin: “OK, we’ll give him a summit. Fine, if that keeps him from invading Ukraine, and if it gets him to draw down his forces, fine. What’s it to us?”
And there was a feeling in the fall that maybe he’ll take another summit; maybe we’ll do some more phone calls, and maybe he’ll take something smaller, and he’ll draw down his forces again; that maybe we can pull another kind of—another kind of Geneva and get him to back down again.
But very soon it becomes clear that this is different for Putin; that he’s not going to take any of the exit ramps that the Biden administration is putting out there for him; that he’s blowing through every single exit ramp one by one, and that he’s just stepping on the gas harder and harder and harder.
And how big a moment is that for Joe Biden? He must be realizing that this could be one of the most significant moments of his presidency, this question of whether Putin is going to invade or not.
I think it’s a huge moment for Biden and his staffers. I think it’s a massively frustrating one because this is not what they wanted to be dealing with. They have domestic concerns that they want to deal with. There’s the pivot to Asia that every administration since Bush wants to do, right? They want to get out of the Middle East. They want to stop dealing with Russia. There are other concerns. There’s a whole wide world out there, outside of the Middle East and outside of Russia, that this White House wants to deal with. They don’t want to get stuck here.
And when they realize that this is going to be the thing that defines their presidency geopolitically, there is a kind of frustration and anger that Putin has kind of trapped them into this, that they won’t be able to focus on and accomplish all of these big, lofty things that they had been planning for for the first Biden term.
Why can’t they? He calls him on video conferences. There’s lots of shuttle diplomacy. There are public statements and warnings at press conferences. Why can’t Biden, with all of the threats, with all of the rallying allies, why can’t they dissuade Putin and show him that he shouldn’t take this course of action?
Because Putin wants Ukraine. Because it’s fundamentally an unbridgeable gap. Because this has nothing to do with NATO. This has nothing to do with respect. This has nothing to do with the European—it has nothing to do with any of the things Putin is saying publicly. Putin wants Ukraine. He wants this pan-Slavic super-state with Moscow as the capital that basically folds Ukraine and Belarus into itself, whether officially or unofficially. He wants Ukraine. He doesn’t think it’s a real country. I don’t know how you compromise with somebody who just wants Ukraine, right? That’s not something you could build a bridge across.
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For a very practical and sound opinion on this situation, this guy gives an excellent experienced perspective.
Our local resident idiot and parrot for the mainstream narrative will say "but, but, but... nobody in Washington agrees with that guy"
Which is exactly why it's well worth listening to
Very practical, very sober, very sensible
View: https://youtu.be/UrL2cPMEa3Y
Our local resident idiot and parrot for the mainstream narrative will say "but, but, but... nobody in Washington agrees with that guy"
Which is exactly why it's well worth listening to
Very practical, very sober, very sensible
View: https://youtu.be/UrL2cPMEa3Y
That idiot has been blocked because making him look stupid has gotten tiresome.
You don't need any help making yourself look stupid.
So by all means, proceed
Yeah I've seen him before. A libertarian Colonel, notice the emphasis on "Colonel." He's the minority contrarian view. I don't think there's another person who held his rank or above in any military who agrees with him. And he's angry with the US military because he kept criticizing them, in fact he wrote books criticizing them, and they wouldn't promote him.
He initially said Russia would steamroll Ukraine (like everyone else thought), then he said Russia would occupy all of Ukraine by October, then he said March, now I'm not sure what he's saying the timeline will be but "Russia really is as strong as we thought they were" is a hill he's willing to die on. He said no way possible Ukraine would take Kherson.
On the other hand you've got former General Ben Hodges who says Ukraine will liberate Crimea by August:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3Qh6d3Lrtg
He was commander of NATO's Allied Land Command and was in command of United States Army Europe. He's changed his timeline too, it was originally October then March and now August.
The fact is both of these people are the minority contrarian view. They could very well be right but at a conference of their peers they would be dismissed or laughed at. There's no reason you shouldn't as well.
And then there's General Bakshi of India who is neutral, unbiased, definitely not CNN.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqHuvl9J-v4
He says it's a symmetrical war and a stalemate. Almost anyone who knows what they're talking about would agree with him. Just look at the war map and how little it has moved since September.
In fact Russia lost at Kharkiv and Kherson on the two ends in blue and you don't see them taking it back. If Ukraine was running out of troops I think you'd see that.
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Hometeam, you’re as impressive with the topic as you are patient for fencing with a sock puppet. I give you credit. Although you’re clearly wasting time with Hugh, as he will never listen, I’ve learned a great deal, so thank you
Lmfao
You're in a pipe dream with a moron just as stupid as you are.
Ukraine is not going to win. The entire thing is stupid. All the propoganda in the world will not change that.
It should have never happened in the first place. But it did happen and Washington is to blame as much as anyone else.
If you had any sense at all, you wouldn't be cheering along with that other idiot for a slow motion train wreck while thousands of men, better than you are dying needlessly.... And you'd be wanting our own corrupt leadership to be trying to make peace.
But... you're a couple of idiots.
Fautquejyaille
Member
Lol
Are you kidding ?
Well, you're not the only one to thank me. Some have sent PMs, and you're welcome. I have this thing where when I know I'm right, and it's just so obvious, then you have someone telling me I'm wrong over and over again to the point where it's ridiculous because they have an agenda, it bothers me.
But it's a topic I've found interesting, more than any of the other topics in the news. Geopolitics has a lot to do with philosophy and can be an interesting thing. Tonight I plan to watch PBS's newest episode about recent economic troubles: inflation, recession, banks collapsing, the Fed printing money and raising rates... and how hopefully 2008 won't repeat itself.
Lmfao
You're in a pipe dream with a moron just as stupid as you are.
Ukraine is not going to win. The only entire thing is stupid. All the propoganda in the world will not change that.
It should have never happened in the first place. But it did happen and Washington is to blame as much as anyone else.
If you had any sense at all, you wouldn't be cheering along with that other idiot for a slow motion train wreck. And you'd be wanting our own corrupt leadership to be trying to make peace.
But... you're a couple of idiots
Yeah I've seen him before. A libertarian Colonel, notice the emphasis on "Colonel." He's the minority contrarian view. I don't think there's another person who held his rank or above in any military who agrees with him. And he's angry with the US military because he kept criticizing them, in fact he wrote books criticizing them, and they wouldn't promote him.
He initially said Russia would steamroll Ukraine (like everyone else thought), then he said Russia would occupy all of Ukraine by October, then he said March, now I'm not sure what he's saying the timeline will be but "Russia really is as strong as we thought they were" is a hill he's willing to die on. He said no way possible Ukraine would take Kherson.
On the other hand you've got former General Ben Hodges who says Ukraine will liberate Crimea by August:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3Qh6d3Lrtg
He was commander of NATO's Allied Land Command and was in command of United States Army Europe. He's changed his timeline too, it was originally October then March and now August.
The fact is both of these people are the minority contrarian view. They could very well be right but at a conference of their peers they would be dismissed or laughed at. There's no reason you shouldn't as well.
And then there's General Bakshi of India who is neutral, unbiased, definitely not CNN.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqHuvl9J-v4
He says it's a symmetrical war and a stalemate. Almost anyone who knows what they're talking about would agree with him. Just look at the war map and how little it has moved since September.
In fact Russia lost at Kharkiv and Kherson on the two ends in blue and you don't see them taking it back. If Ukraine was running out of troops I think you'd see that.
In other words, Russia is sitting on everything in Ukraine they want, and most places worth having and nobody can make them leave. Not even NATO with full Washington support.
Because something you refuse to understand is happening....THOSE PEOPLE DO NOT WANT TO BE A PART OF WHAT WASHINGTON IS. RUSSIA HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LOCAL POPULATION. THEY'RE NOT INTERESTED IN ANYTHING ELSE.
Maybe Ukraine should not have tried to run off all the ethnic Russian people with the encouragement of Washington?
Then they wouldn't be losing everything in Ukraine worth having outside of Kyiv. And they will lose territory now. That's a certainty.
But it didn't have to be that way.
Washington chose that path for them
And your bullshit of "symmetrical warfare" basically means facing an opponent who's as capable as you are. Something the current regime in Washington doesn't know shit about.
Because Washington could not push Russia out of Ukraine and will not.
And as far as colonel McGregor?
Well obviously nobody in Washington admits to agreeing with him because Washington is controlled by idiots who are running a propoganda campaign and not a military campaign.
You don't get to rule the world and tell everyone else how to live because you think you know better than they do.
You'll learn this the hard way
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So, in September Russia annexed Kherson and Putin personally announced it will be "Russia forever."
Putin says four annexed Ukrainian regions will be 'Russian forever' | Euractiv
Russia's President Vladimir Putin moved on Thursday (30 September) to formally announce the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions by Moscow, in what is Europe's biggest land grab since Hitler.
www.euractiv.com
In November Russia withdrew from Kherson:
Putin can’t escape fallout from Russian retreat in Ukraine
The BBC's Steve Rosenberg on the mood in Russia following its army's withdrawal from Kherson.
www.bbc.com
Kharkiv too, that's a city they attacked and lost a lot of troops at. Don't tell me they didn't want Kharkiv.
And if you look at a list of Ukraine's top 10 cities by population:
| City name | City name (in Ukrainian) | Oblast | Population (2021 estimate)[1] | Population (2001 census) | Population change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyiv | Київ | none | 2,962,180 | 2,611,327 | +13.44% |
| Kharkiv | Харків | Kharkiv | 1,433,886 | 1,470,902 | −2.52% |
| Odesa | Одеса | Odesa | 1,015,826 | 1,029,049 | −1.28% |
| Dnipro | Дніпро | Dnipropetrovsk | 980,948 | 1,080,846 | −9.24% |
| Donetsk[a] | Донецьк | Donetsk | 905,364 | 1,016,194 | −10.91% |
| Zaporizhzhia | Запоріжжя | Zaporizhzhia | 722,713 | 817,882 | −11.64% |
| Lviv | Львів | Lviv | 721,510 | 732,818 | −1.54% |
| Kryvyi Rih | Кривий Ріг | Dnipropetrovsk | 612,750 | 709,014 | −13.58% |
| Mykolaiv | Миколаїв | Mykolaiv | 476,101 | 514,136 | −7.40% |
| Sevastopol |
Putin had ordered his Generals to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March, and they still don't have even Bakhmut to show for their offensive.
Putin has "overestimated" Russia's ability to capture Donetsk by March: ISW
Putin has reportedly set a March deadline to fully capture Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which he previously claimed to have annexed for Russia.
www.newsweek.com
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If you really want to know what's going on in Ukraine you'd want to read this from the ISW that came out today:
www.understandingwar.org
And this is what your libertarian colonel reads too every day to get his understanding, then he adds his libertarian spin about this being a mistake for Biden and adds Russian propaganda about artillery superiority and casualty numbers:
Statements made by Ukrainian military officials on the pace and prospects of current Russian offensive operations may suggest that the overall Russian spring offensive may be nearing culmination. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on March 19 that Russia was unable to gather sufficient forces for the anticipated major offensive in Donbas and noted that current Russian offensive actions cannot be called a “major strategic operation.”[5] Cherevaty emphasized that Russian forces cannot even complete the tactical capture of Bakhmut, which supports ISW’s assessment that the Wagner Group offensive near Bakhmut is likely nearing culmination.[6] Russian forces are also notably struggling to secure operationally significant gains elsewhere along the frontline, particularly in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City and Vuhledar areas. Ukrainian Tavriisk Defense Forces spokesperson Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi noted on March 19 that Russian forces have been desperately attacking Avdiivka to restart offensive operations on Vuhledar, likely suggesting that continued Russian attacks in the Avdiivka area are meant partially to pull Ukrainian reserves away from western Donetsk Oblast to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.[7] Dmytrashkivskyi stated that this renewed offensive focus on Avdiivka has recently led to major Russian losses around Avdiivka amounting to the equivalent of one company, on which ISW has previously reported.[8]
Ukrainian military officials additionally continue to indicate that massive Russian losses in the Vuhledar area are severeley degrading Russian offensive capacity in Donetsk Oblast. Dmytrashkivskyi stated that Russian forces have reinforced elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (currently heavily committed in the Vuhledar area) with reserve forces of the 98th Guards Airborne Division.[9] The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade suffered catastrophic manpower and equipment losses during continued failed attacks on Vuhledar in November 2022 and February 2023, and Russian military leadership is likely heavily relying on reserve elements from the 98th Airborne Division to offset and compensate for the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade’s losses.[10] The 98th Airborne Division is at least partially committed in the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast, and commitment of some of its constituent elements to the Vuhledar area is likely indicative of a level of desperation on the part of the Russian military command trying to reconstitute battered units and restart offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.[11] The Ukrainian General Staff similarly noted that the Russian military leadership is in a hurry to send reinforcements to Vuhledar and has been creating a ”Shtorm” detachment within the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District), which will presumably deploy to the Vuhledar area on March 24.[12] The ad hoc reconstitution of existing units for deployment to Vuhledar, as well as the apparent creation of sub-brigade echelon special formations, suggests that Russian combat capabilities in western Donetsk Oblast are greatly degraded.
The overall Russian spring offensive is thus likely approaching culmination. Ongoing Russian offensives along the Svatove-Kreminna line, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City and Vuhledar frontlines have failed to make more than incremental tactical gains in the first few months of 2023. Russia has committed the approximately 300,000 mobilized soldiers, called up by partial mobilization in September 2022 for the purpose of pursing exactly such a spring offensive, to these various offensive efforts. If 300,000 Russian soldiers have been unable to give Russia a decisive offensive edge in Ukraine it is highly unlikely that the commitment of additional forces in future mobilization waves will produce a dramatically different outcome this year. Ukraine is therefore well positioned to regain the initiative and launch counteroffensives in critical sectors of the current frontline.
Institute for the Study of War
This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Statements made by Ukrainian military officials on the pace and prospects of current Russian offensive operations may suggest that the overall Russian spring offensive may be nearing culmination. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on March 19 that Russia was unable to gather sufficient forces for the anticipated major offensive in Donbas and noted that current Russian offensive actions cannot be called a “major strategic operation.”[5] Cherevaty emphasized that Russian forces cannot even complete the tactical capture of Bakhmut, which supports ISW’s assessment that the Wagner Group offensive near Bakhmut is likely nearing culmination.[6] Russian forces are also notably struggling to secure operationally significant gains elsewhere along the frontline, particularly in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City and Vuhledar areas. Ukrainian Tavriisk Defense Forces spokesperson Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi noted on March 19 that Russian forces have been desperately attacking Avdiivka to restart offensive operations on Vuhledar, likely suggesting that continued Russian attacks in the Avdiivka area are meant partially to pull Ukrainian reserves away from western Donetsk Oblast to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.[7] Dmytrashkivskyi stated that this renewed offensive focus on Avdiivka has recently led to major Russian losses around Avdiivka amounting to the equivalent of one company, on which ISW has previously reported.[8]
Ukrainian military officials additionally continue to indicate that massive Russian losses in the Vuhledar area are severeley degrading Russian offensive capacity in Donetsk Oblast. Dmytrashkivskyi stated that Russian forces have reinforced elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (currently heavily committed in the Vuhledar area) with reserve forces of the 98th Guards Airborne Division.[9] The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade suffered catastrophic manpower and equipment losses during continued failed attacks on Vuhledar in November 2022 and February 2023, and Russian military leadership is likely heavily relying on reserve elements from the 98th Airborne Division to offset and compensate for the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade’s losses.[10] The 98th Airborne Division is at least partially committed in the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast, and commitment of some of its constituent elements to the Vuhledar area is likely indicative of a level of desperation on the part of the Russian military command trying to reconstitute battered units and restart offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.[11] The Ukrainian General Staff similarly noted that the Russian military leadership is in a hurry to send reinforcements to Vuhledar and has been creating a ”Shtorm” detachment within the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District), which will presumably deploy to the Vuhledar area on March 24.[12] The ad hoc reconstitution of existing units for deployment to Vuhledar, as well as the apparent creation of sub-brigade echelon special formations, suggests that Russian combat capabilities in western Donetsk Oblast are greatly degraded.
The overall Russian spring offensive is thus likely approaching culmination. Ongoing Russian offensives along the Svatove-Kreminna line, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City and Vuhledar frontlines have failed to make more than incremental tactical gains in the first few months of 2023. Russia has committed the approximately 300,000 mobilized soldiers, called up by partial mobilization in September 2022 for the purpose of pursing exactly such a spring offensive, to these various offensive efforts. If 300,000 Russian soldiers have been unable to give Russia a decisive offensive edge in Ukraine it is highly unlikely that the commitment of additional forces in future mobilization waves will produce a dramatically different outcome this year. Ukraine is therefore well positioned to regain the initiative and launch counteroffensives in critical sectors of the current frontline.
If you really want to know what's going on in Ukraine you'd want to read this from the ISW that came out today:
And this is what your libertarian colonel reads too every day to get his understanding, then he adds his libertarian spin about this being a mistake for Biden and Russian propaganda about artillery superiority and casualty numbers:Institute for the Study of War
This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Statements made by Ukrainian military officials on the pace and prospects of current Russian offensive operations may suggest that the overall Russian spring offensive may be nearing culmination. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on March 19 that Russia was unable to gather sufficient forces for the anticipated major offensive in Donbas and noted that current Russian offensive actions cannot be called a “major strategic operation.”[5] Cherevaty emphasized that Russian forces cannot even complete the tactical capture of Bakhmut, which supports ISW’s assessment that the Wagner Group offensive near Bakhmut is likely nearing culmination.[6] Russian forces are also notably struggling to secure operationally significant gains elsewhere along the frontline, particularly in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City and Vuhledar areas. Ukrainian Tavriisk Defense Forces spokesperson Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi noted on March 19 that Russian forces have been desperately attacking Avdiivka to restart offensive operations on Vuhledar, likely suggesting that continued Russian attacks in the Avdiivka area are meant partially to pull Ukrainian reserves away from western Donetsk Oblast to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.[7] Dmytrashkivskyi stated that this renewed offensive focus on Avdiivka has recently led to major Russian losses around Avdiivka amounting to the equivalent of one company, on which ISW has previously reported.[8]
Ukrainian military officials additionally continue to indicate that massive Russian losses in the Vuhledar area are severeley degrading Russian offensive capacity in Donetsk Oblast. Dmytrashkivskyi stated that Russian forces have reinforced elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (currently heavily committed in the Vuhledar area) with reserve forces of the 98th Guards Airborne Division.[9] The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade suffered catastrophic manpower and equipment losses during continued failed attacks on Vuhledar in November 2022 and February 2023, and Russian military leadership is likely heavily relying on reserve elements from the 98th Airborne Division to offset and compensate for the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade’s losses.[10] The 98th Airborne Division is at least partially committed in the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast, and commitment of some of its constituent elements to the Vuhledar area is likely indicative of a level of desperation on the part of the Russian military command trying to reconstitute battered units and restart offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.[11] The Ukrainian General Staff similarly noted that the Russian military leadership is in a hurry to send reinforcements to Vuhledar and has been creating a ”Shtorm” detachment within the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (36th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District), which will presumably deploy to the Vuhledar area on March 24.[12] The ad hoc reconstitution of existing units for deployment to Vuhledar, as well as the apparent creation of sub-brigade echelon special formations, suggests that Russian combat capabilities in western Donetsk Oblast are greatly degraded.
The overall Russian spring offensive is thus likely approaching culmination. Ongoing Russian offensives along the Svatove-Kreminna line, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City and Vuhledar frontlines have failed to make more than incremental tactical gains in the first few months of 2023. Russia has committed the approximately 300,000 mobilized soldiers, called up by partial mobilization in September 2022 for the purpose of pursing exactly such a spring offensive, to these various offensive efforts. If 300,000 Russian soldiers have been unable to give Russia a decisive offensive edge in Ukraine it is highly unlikely that the commitment of additional forces in future mobilization waves will produce a dramatically different outcome this year. Ukraine is therefore well positioned to regain the initiative and launch counteroffensives in critical sectors of the current frontline.
You're not doing anything except for trying to justify more death and bloodshed. It's fucking pathetic
You talk alot of stupid shit and have no end to your bullshit propoganda. But it doesn't change anything.
I keep telling you and you just don't listen; Russia will ultimately control the ethnic Russian parts of Ukraine. And there's nothing you, Washington, NATO or anyone else can do about it. Because that's the will of those people.
it didn't have to be that way. But Washington wants war. So that's what's going to happen. Irregardless of whatever propoganda you post, or bullshit you spew.
Washington cannot beat Russia in a land war in Ukraine. They can't. Russia is not Iraq or Libya.
it's stupid, greedy and arrogant to even think so.
it's not good for Americans, Ukrainian people or anyone else to continue the senseless death and destruction of innocent people to advance the greedy ambitions of a few rich people in Washington.
get that through your thick head
We've wasted a chance in Ukraine, just one among many, to bring a new idea into the world.
And that idea is that the entire world, and all it's diverse people and ideas could not ever, and should not ever be subjected to one idea of governance and human existence.
But that as many different types of people's and societies that exist among humankind that none are completely wrong or completely right. And that open and transparent discourse, compromise and free trade should be priorities among the people.
Political domination, economic consolidation and ultimate control of all of humanity is something that has always failed, since biblical times when the nations were scattered by the power of God to modern times when we see that just not everyone can be forced into the same mould of life and society as others. Even when intentions are honestly good.
We need to wake up. We need to understand that our human strength exists only when we respect each other and not when we can dominate each other. No matter if the means are passive aggressive political coups or military might. Because that's just two goals marching towards the same ends. Political domination and economic consolidation.
There are no innocent governments when it comes to war. There are no blameless parties when people are dying. Understand that if you refuse to understand anything else I say.
These idiots like @hometeam would like to see the world in their image. Not the world's people in the image they choose for themselves.
But, he's a coward. A fool and a useful tool. Not a man , not a freeborn independent person.
Don't forget that every empire eventually falls because it's all built on the same idea of forced conformance of the multitudes and ideological control of the masses
Mankind was never meant to be a beehive of drones and leaders. The cosmic mind behind all creation made man different for this reason.
The sooner we accept that the better.
Because trying to make mankind into a beehive of liberalism and decadence is no different that doing the same in the name of communism, or religious zealotry. And it all leads to the same end. Death and destruction.
Don't listen to stupid people, just because they scream the loudest.
And don't believe what the crowd says, just because they are many.
Weigh these things against your own common sense and stand firm in your own conviction.
And God help you if you cannot stand against them. But if you value your very soul and independent spirit, than for the love of God do not stand with them just because you lack the strength to oppose them.
God bless
And that idea is that the entire world, and all it's diverse people and ideas could not ever, and should not ever be subjected to one idea of governance and human existence.
But that as many different types of people's and societies that exist among humankind that none are completely wrong or completely right. And that open and transparent discourse, compromise and free trade should be priorities among the people.
Political domination, economic consolidation and ultimate control of all of humanity is something that has always failed, since biblical times when the nations were scattered by the power of God to modern times when we see that just not everyone can be forced into the same mould of life and society as others. Even when intentions are honestly good.
We need to wake up. We need to understand that our human strength exists only when we respect each other and not when we can dominate each other. No matter if the means are passive aggressive political coups or military might. Because that's just two goals marching towards the same ends. Political domination and economic consolidation.
There are no innocent governments when it comes to war. There are no blameless parties when people are dying. Understand that if you refuse to understand anything else I say.
These idiots like @hometeam would like to see the world in their image. Not the world's people in the image they choose for themselves.
But, he's a coward. A fool and a useful tool. Not a man , not a freeborn independent person.
Don't forget that every empire eventually falls because it's all built on the same idea of forced conformance of the multitudes and ideological control of the masses
Mankind was never meant to be a beehive of drones and leaders. The cosmic mind behind all creation made man different for this reason.
The sooner we accept that the better.
Because trying to make mankind into a beehive of liberalism and decadence is no different that doing the same in the name of communism, or religious zealotry. And it all leads to the same end. Death and destruction.
Don't listen to stupid people, just because they scream the loudest.
And don't believe what the crowd says, just because they are many.
Weigh these things against your own common sense and stand firm in your own conviction.
And God help you if you cannot stand against them. But if you value your very soul and independent spirit, than for the love of God do not stand with them just because you lack the strength to oppose them.
God bless
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Well, what's the difference between an ethnic Russian and ethnic Ukrainian? What Putin writes in his essay:
On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians - Wikipedia
So this doesn't stop with the Donbas, it's just that's all they're able to hold onto at the moment. They've assaulted and tried to capture a lot of places outside of the Donbas: Kiev, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, etc etc... And they've hit almost every city with missiles. Not to mention Chechnya and Georgia. This ends in the Donbas no more than our war with Saddam Hussein ended with driving him out of Kuwait. It's not like Russia or Ukraine is suddenly going to forget these unresolved issues.
But yeah like we've discussed, it takes 3x (sometimes 5x) the attackers to capture a defended area so I don't see Ukraine's upcoming offensive being a gamechanger either. This will be frozen for awhile. The Ukrainians will never beat the Russians? That's what they said about the Vietnamese beating the Americans.
The irony of this is that this is a conflict between Putin and his dictators in Iran/Korea/Belarus/Syria, against the Western democratic countries. And what you describe as force and control is the cornerstone of authoritarian rule, the very thing you're defending and condemning at the same time. Putinism cannot exist without total control over everything, he's a KGB-man. While democracy is based on choice and the West values sovereignty.
Putinism - Wikipedia
You blame the Ukrainians, you want them to lose, you call for their aid to be taken away, you spread Russian propaganda... then you sit there and say you're the one that cares about the dying Ukrainians.
All you care about is Joe Biden's re-election chances, and if people don't want to vote for him after being informed, great! I'm not voting for him, his dementia has gotten so bad I can barely follow his speeches. But to wake up every morning trying to figure out how to spin every topic in the news into a Biden outrage or Biden failure, promote these conspiracies as fact rather than hunches, to want Ukraine and America to fail just so Biden can fail, to say Biden wanted this war and caused it and did nothing to stop it and is the only thing in the way of peace, and to use scare tactics saying Ukraine is running out of soldiers and our boys are next -- that's wrong, and you should be ashamed of yourself.
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Fautquejyaille
Member
exactly my friend they don't understand that people want to live according to their ancestral traditions and the worst of it all is that these idiots like @hometeam are convinced that American bombs are more justified than Russian bombs by using the words that close the debate: conspiratorial, antidemocratic, racist and of course the best of all ANTISEMITE and then he psychoanalyzes you on your mental abilities to finish. if he had testicles he would go to Ukraine to fight the Wagner militia or the Chechen fighters
Here's the guy the idiot @hometeam says is wrong.
The video is from 2015 and it seems like he's predicted the future that Washington involvement in Ukraine would lead us to exactly where we are now.
His prediction...our present.
But, but...the idiot says nobody in Washington agrees with this guy either
View: https://twitter.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/1637809705522192394?t=8zRWOh3W8RichGFG9-uR7A&s=19
The video is from 2015 and it seems like he's predicted the future that Washington involvement in Ukraine would lead us to exactly where we are now.
His prediction...our present.
But, but...the idiot says nobody in Washington agrees with this guy either
View: https://twitter.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/1637809705522192394?t=8zRWOh3W8RichGFG9-uR7A&s=19
Well, what's the difference between an ethnic Russian and ethnic Ukrainian? What Putin writes in his essay:
is that all slavic people are basically one ethnicity, one nation, and the only thing keeping them apart are outsiders.On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
So this doesn't stop with the Donbas, it's just that's all they're able to hold onto at the moment. They've assaulted and tried to capture a lot of places outside of the Donbas: Kiev, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, etc etc... And they've hit almost every city with missiles. Not to mention Chechnya and Georgia. This ends in the Donbas no more than our war with Saddam Hussein ended with driving him out of Kuwait. It's not like Russia or Ukraine is suddenly going to forget these unresolved issues.
But yeah like we've discussed, it takes 3x (sometimes 5x) the attackers to capture a defended area so I don't see Ukraine's upcoming offensive being a gamechanger either. This will be frozen for awhile. The Ukrainians will never beat the Russians? That's what they said about the Vietnamese beating the Americans.
The irony of this is that this is a conflict between Putin and his dictators in Iran/Korea/Belarus/Syria, against the Western democratic countries. And what you describe as force and control is the cornerstone of authoritarian rule, the very thing you're defending and condemning at the same time. Putinism cannot exist without total control over everything, he's a KGB-man. While democracy is based on choice and the West values sovereignty.
Putinism - Wikipedia
You blame the Ukrainians, you want them to lose, you call for their aid to be taken away, you spread Russian propaganda... then you sit there and say you're the one that cares about the dying Ukrainians.
All you care about is Joe Biden's re-election chances, and if people don't want to vote for him after being informed, great! I'm not voting for him, his dementia has gotten so bad I can barely follow his speeches. But to wake up every morning trying to figure out how to spin every topic in the news into a Biden outrage or Biden failure, promote these conspiracies as fact rather than hunches, to want Ukraine and America to fail just so Biden can fail, to say Biden wanted this war and caused it and did nothing to stop it and is the only thing in the way of peace, and to use scare tactics saying Ukraine is running out of soldiers and our boys are next -- that's wrong, and you should be ashamed of yourself.
Lmfao
You're the idiot that said "this war is good for the US, they get to weaken Russia for a little bit of money and no risk to American lives" - @hometeam
What the fuck are you lecturing anybody about not giving a damn about the ukranian people?
You outta be ashamed
Notice he never predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine, because that couldn't be predicted. In fact even when their tanks were lined up at the border most people (outside the CIA) thought they weren't invading. He did say Ukraine will get wrecked though, which is pretty easy for him to say a year after Russia annexed Crimea and started arming separatist militias in the Donbas.
What Mearsheimer is saying there in 2015 is if we encourage the Ukrainians to play tough with Russia, Russia will win. Ultimately there was a 2015 debate in the Obama administration where he came to the same conclusion and instead of starting an arms race in Ukraine he hit Russia with sanctions.
So, former ambassador to Ukraine William Burns talks about that here:
View: https://youtu.be/yOTx7HxVDsM?t=2854
"There was a debate within the Obama administration, and the concern was that if we provide these weapons, somehow the Russians would be provoked, and they might do things that we didn’t want them to do, was the argument from the Obama administration. I say the Obama administration, but it really was—it was really opposed—the provision of Javelins was opposed at the top.
So the Obama administration, to the end of that administration, did not provide Javelins to the Ukrainians. " - William Burns
And Secretary of State Antony Blinken talks about that here:
View: https://youtu.be/2jXLcCrLrh4?t=1540
"But Obama led this very systematic, determined effort to, in a sense, go at the problem asymmetrically ourselves. That is to say, it made no sense for us, from Obama’s perspective, to try to confront the Russians directly, militarily in Ukraine. They were there; we were not. They could amass force much more significantly than we could. Ukraine was not a NATO member.
The soft underbelly for Russia in Ukraine was not military; it was economic. Hence the sanctions; hence the effort by the United States to lead Europe in imposing very significant sanctions on Russia that made it pay a real price for its adventurism in Ukraine." -Antony Blinken
He also goes on to say this:
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
youtu.be
The argument was that if they had these anti-tank weapons in their hands, they could start to do a lot of damage, defend themselves, but also do damage and maybe create a bit of a disincentive for the Russians to continue to do this, because the Russians would start to lose forces, and they’d have to explain that back home. So that was one argument.
The other argument was that if we started to get into a tit-for-tat with Russia on military grounds, that it would start to spiral up—we would put in more weapons, they would put in more weapons; we’d try to match it, they would surmount that—and that that was going to be a losing game for us, because for Russia, this was really existential, or at least for Putin it was existential. And they were there; we weren’t. They were right on the border. It was very easy for them to get a lot of force in very quickly. We were always going to be behind in that game.
… What made the most sense was not to get into a military tit-for-tat that spiraled up but rather to go at the soft underbelly, which was Russia’s economy. At the end of the day, that’s where President Obama came out. I think Europeans, including [German] Chancellor [Angela] Merkel, thought that that was the best direction to go in, but it was an ongoing argument within the administration." -Antony Blinken
Now there are some people today who say we should've armed Ukraine enough to beat these rebels, because this civil war in Ukraine's Donbas area wouldn't have lasted 8 years, there wouldn't have been the atrocities and outrage, wouldn't be so much animosity or hate. But Mearsheimer argued in 2015 that if we send javelins and heavy equipment, the Russians will just keep escalating and it's not something we can win. And Obama came to the same conclusion.
In hindsight, you can say Mearsheimer and Obama was probably wrong not to arm the Ukrainians more, because Putin invaded anyway once it became clear these militias weren't going to overthrow the govt in Kiev and install a Russian dictator. However, what that 8 year war did was solidify Ukraine's identity as a nation and radicalize their opposition to Russia.
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